This report presents the baseline economic forecast that CBO is using as the basis for updating its budget projections for 2020 to 2030.
CBO projects that from 2020 to 2030, annual real GDP will be 3.4 percent lower, on average, than it projected in January. The CBO found that direct assistance to state and local governments had the largest effect on the economy.
CBO projects that from 2020 to 2030, annual real GDP will be 3.4 percent lower, on average, than it projected in January.
A string of emergency COVID-19 relief bills passed earlier in the year added 4.7 percent to gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 and will add another 3.1 percent to the economy in 2021, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). A string of emergency COVID-19 relief bills passed earlier in the year added 4.7 percent to gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 and will add another 3.1 … The unemployment rate remains above its prepandemic level through the end of the projection period. The Federal Reserve estimates that the economy will shrink 3.7 percent this year, down from the roughly 2 percent projected growth rate before the pandemic, meaning the economic downturn could have been nearly twice as bad without the intervention. For example, the pace projected for the initial rapid recovery could continue until GDP returned to its potential, or the economy could grow much more slowly. An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030, Supplemental Material for An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030, Data Underlying Figures in the Supplemental Material, The Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output, Interim Economic Projections for 2020 and 2021, Baseline Budget Projections as of March 6, 2020, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030, Privacy, Security, and Copyright Policies. "By providing financial support to households, businesses, and state and local governments, the legislation will offset part of the deterioration in economic conditions brought about by the pandemic," the report said. The baseline forecast is being published now, rather than later with the budget projections, to provide the Congress with CBO’s current assessment of the economic outlook in a rapidly evolving environment.
The agency currently plans to release those budget projections later this summer. In CBO’s projections, deficits increase from 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2030 to 13 percent by 2050—larger in every year than the average deficit of 3 percent of GDP … The contents of this site are ©2020 Capitol Hill Publishing Corp., a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc. This CBO outlook also does not take any future recessions into account, …
Documentary filmmaker discusses experiences that shaped Trump, Biden. In the first quarter of 2020, the pandemic and associated social distancing ended the longest economic expansion and triggered the deepest downturn in output and employment since World War II. The CBO also said the deficit in 2021 is projected to be 8.6% of the GDP, the first time the federal debt has surpassed the nation's annual economic output since 1946. The annual unemployment rate, which was projected to average 4.2 percent, is now projected to average 6.1 percent. It is similar to the May forecast for those two years, except that the projection of growth in the second half of 2020 has been revised downward. All in all, the report said the bills would add $2.3 trillion to the 2020 deficit and another $0.6 trillion to the 2021 deficit. The much-vaunted Paycheck Protection Program, which offered small businesses forgivable loans to keep workers on the books, only resulted in a 37 cent increase for every dollar paid, the lowest on the list. Data on output, prices, labor market measures, interest rates, income, potential GDP, and its underlying inputs from 1949 through the most recent year completed, in comma-separated values (CSV) files.
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